Arthur Hayes, Chief Investment Officer of Maelstrom and co-founder of BitMEX, stated at the Token2049 conference in Singapore that risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, may collapse within a few days after the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut.

Cutting interest rates is a bad idea

Arthur Hayes explained in an interview with CoinDesk during the Token2049 conference that the upcoming interest rate cut will exacerbate inflation issues and lead to a strengthening of the Japanese yen (JPY), thereby triggering widespread risk aversion sentiment.

Cutting interest rates is a bad idea because inflation still exists in the United States, and the government is the main driver of price pressure. If borrowing costs are reduced, this will exacerbate inflation. The second reason is that cutting interest rates will narrow the interest rate gap between the United States and Japan, which could lead to a sharp appreciation of the yen and trigger the end of yen arbitrage trading

The market had already felt the destructive impact of the strengthening of the yen and the subsequent lifting of yen arbitrage trading in early August this year, when the Bank of Japan raised its benchmark lending rate from 0 to 0.25%. Bitcoin fell from approximately $64000 to $50000 within a week.

Arthur Hayes emphasized that the short-term "USD/JPY exchange rate" is the only important indicator.

Most analysts expect the Bank of Japan to further raise interest rates in the coming months, while the Federal Reserve will take the opposite path (cutting interest rates). This policy divergence means that the yen may further strengthen, forcing investors to liquidate risky assets financed by yen denominated loans.

Arthur Hayes predicts that US interest rates will fall from the current range of 5.25% to 5.5% to near zero levels.

The initial market reaction will be negative, and the central bank's response will be to further cut interest rates to contain the crisis. So I think cutting interest rates is a bad idea, but they will still do it and it will soon drop to zero

Does Ethereum have a chance to reverse its decline?

Approaching zero interest rates means that investors may once again seek other profit opportunities, thereby bringing renewed attention to areas in the cryptocurrency market that can generate returns, such as Ethereum, Ethena's USDe, and Pendle's Bitcoin staking.

Ethereum (ETH) currently offers an annualized 4% staking yield, which will benefit in an ultra-low interest rate environment. Ethena's USDe uses Bitcoin and Ethereum as supporting assets, combined with equivalent perpetual futures short positions to generate returns, while decentralized financial platform Pendle's Bitcoin staking offered floating returns of up to 45% last week, all of which will benefit from the low interest rate environment. At the same time, the market demand for token treasury bond and other products affected by interest rates may weaken.

(责任编辑：银饰)

• ·气温什么什么的
• ·政府效率部（DOGE）代币单日暴涨47%：未来走势能否延续强势？
• ·以太坊巨鲸清仓超2600万美元ETH\n关键词：以太坊 巨鲸地址 清仓 加密货币 市场动态\n摘要：据Lookonchain监测，某巨鲸地址清仓10543枚ETH，价值约2610万美元，两日内浮亏200万美元，市场波动引发关注。
• ·当MBTI遇上区块链：你的性格能否助你赚大钱？
• ·云币和火币
• ·风华高科收盘涨2.15%，主力资金净流入2625.16万元
• ·火币网以太坊
• ·2024派币价格-2024年Pi币的价格预测
• ·火币网合法吗
• ·华阳集团收盘跌1.19%，主力资金净流出2516.05万元
• ·CryptoQuant：比特幣交易所存款地址達多年最低水平，表明賣壓可能有所緩解
• ·靠谱柴犬币交易所有没有？名气最大柴犬币交易所交易量排名
• ·住宿费进项税额转出会计分录是什么
• ·钱包etc币btc钱包
• ·火币网提现
• ·成渝特区概念31日主力净流出35.6亿元，四川长虹、宗申动力居前