Arthur Hayes, Chief Investment Officer of Maelstrom and co-founder of BitMEX, stated at the Token2049 conference in Singapore that risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, may collapse within a few days after the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut.

Cutting interest rates is a bad idea

Arthur Hayes explained in an interview with CoinDesk during the Token2049 conference that the upcoming interest rate cut will exacerbate inflation issues and lead to a strengthening of the Japanese yen (JPY), thereby triggering widespread risk aversion sentiment.

Cutting interest rates is a bad idea because inflation still exists in the United States, and the government is the main driver of price pressure. If borrowing costs are reduced, this will exacerbate inflation. The second reason is that cutting interest rates will narrow the interest rate gap between the United States and Japan, which could lead to a sharp appreciation of the yen and trigger the end of yen arbitrage trading

The market had already felt the destructive impact of the strengthening of the yen and the subsequent lifting of yen arbitrage trading in early August this year, when the Bank of Japan raised its benchmark lending rate from 0 to 0.25%. Bitcoin fell from approximately $64000 to $50000 within a week.

Arthur Hayes emphasized that the short-term "USD/JPY exchange rate" is the only important indicator.

Most analysts expect the Bank of Japan to further raise interest rates in the coming months, while the Federal Reserve will take the opposite path (cutting interest rates). This policy divergence means that the yen may further strengthen, forcing investors to liquidate risky assets financed by yen denominated loans.

Arthur Hayes predicts that US interest rates will fall from the current range of 5.25% to 5.5% to near zero levels.

The initial market reaction will be negative, and the central bank's response will be to further cut interest rates to contain the crisis. So I think cutting interest rates is a bad idea, but they will still do it and it will soon drop to zero

Does Ethereum have a chance to reverse its decline?

Approaching zero interest rates means that investors may once again seek other profit opportunities, thereby bringing renewed attention to areas in the cryptocurrency market that can generate returns, such as Ethereum, Ethena's USDe, and Pendle's Bitcoin staking.

Ethereum (ETH) currently offers an annualized 4% staking yield, which will benefit in an ultra-low interest rate environment. Ethena's USDe uses Bitcoin and Ethereum as supporting assets, combined with equivalent perpetual futures short positions to generate returns, while decentralized financial platform Pendle's Bitcoin staking offered floating returns of up to 45% last week, all of which will benefit from the low interest rate environment. At the same time, the market demand for token treasury bond and other products affected by interest rates may weaken.

(责任编辑：金店)

• ·卡尔达诺价格预测：ADA 反弹 13% 测试 1 美元突破区域
• ·东盟自贸区概念31日主力净流出1.01亿元，赛轮轮胎、南宁百货居前
• ·比特比今日最新行情-比特今日最新行情走势
• ·10月31日富国研究精选灵活配置混合D净值增长0.15%，今年来累计上涨11.46%
• ·小盘子股票
• ·10月31日融通消费升级混合A净值下跌0.96%，近1个月累计下跌4.98%
• ·美丽的祝福在什么什么-美丽的祝福对吗
• ·中国人寿的养老保险产品有哪些种类？详细介绍一下。
• ·以太坊链游《Ember Sword》因资金问题宣布永久关闭
• ·京津冀概念31日主力净流出8.73亿元，常山北明、万通发展居前
• ·设备使用损坏报废损失所得税能否扣除
• ·10月31日华富益鑫灵活配置混合C净值下跌0.04%，近1个月累计下跌0.77%
• ·上海股票有什么股票代码-上海股票有什么股票代码吗
• ·10月31日融通远见价值一年持有期混合C净值下跌0.08%，今年来累计下跌13.29%
• ·个税申报时怎么把非正常人员改为正常
• ·保险公司是如何计算税费的？如何申报税务？